Morningstar uses three sets of default Market Assumptions: Basic, Consolidated and Expanded. The tables below show you the asset classes in each set, plus the Expected Return, Standard Deviation and Yield for each asset class.
This information is updated annually and is provided by Ibbotson Associates. The information is based on returns since 1926 for equities and 1970 for bonds..
Morningstar Basic
|
Asset Class |
Expected Return |
Standard Deviation |
Yield |
|
US Large Cap Growth |
6.03 |
17.05 |
1.91 |
|
US Large Cap Value |
7.89 |
15.44 |
2.80 |
|
US Mid Cap Growth |
7.93 |
21.65 |
1.15 |
|
US Mid Cap Value |
10.09 |
16.60 |
2.48 |
|
US Small Cap Growth |
6.81 |
23.29 |
0.70 |
|
US Small Cap Value |
10.86 |
18.90 |
2.19 |
|
Non-US Dev Stk |
8.67 |
17.43 |
3.27 |
|
Non-US Emrg Stk |
11.87 |
28.73 |
2.78 |
|
US Inv Grade Bonds |
3.60 |
6.05 |
4.05 |
|
US High Yield Bonds |
6.58 |
9.61 |
9.48 |
|
Non-US Dev Bonds |
3.44 |
9.40 |
2.73 |
|
Cash |
1.94 |
1.89 |
2.04 |
|
Real Estate |
7.60 |
23.12 |
4.20 |
|
Commodities |
4.47 |
27.25 |
2.04 |
|
Inflation |
2.25 |
1.72 |
0.00 |
Morningstar Consolidated
|
Asset Class |
Expected Return |
Standard Deviation |
Yield |
|
US Large Cap |
7.41 |
15.59 |
2.20 |
|
US Mid/Small Cap |
8.68 |
20.44 |
1.45 |
|
Non-US Stock |
8.67 |
17.43 |
3.27 |
|
Bonds |
3.60 |
6.05 |
4.05 |
|
Cash |
1.94 |
1.89 |
2.04 |
|
Real Estate |
7.60 |
23.12 |
4.20 |
|
Commodities |
4.47 |
27.25 |
2.04 |
|
Inflation |
2.25 |
1.72 |
0.00 |
Morningstar Expanded
|
Asset Class |
Expected Return |
Standard Deviation |
Yield |
|
US Large Cap Growth |
6.03 |
17.05 |
1.91 |
|
US Large Cap Value |
7.89 |
15.44 |
2.80 |
|
US Mid Cap Growth |
7.93 |
21.65 |
1.15 |
|
US Mid Cap Value |
10.09 |
16.60 |
2.48 |
|
US Small Cap Growth |
6.81 |
23.29 |
0.70 |
|
US Small Cap Value |
10.86 |
18.90 |
2.19 |
|
Non-US Dev Stk |
8.67 |
17.43 |
3.27 |
|
Non-US Emrg Stk |
11.87 |
28.73 |
2.78 |
|
US Txbl Long Term Bonds |
4.63 |
15.27 |
5.12 |
|
US Txbl Int Term Bonds |
3.50 |
5.31 |
3.66 |
|
US Txbl Short Term Bonds |
2.84 |
2.32 |
2.80 |
|
US Infl Protected Bonds |
3.94 |
9.79 |
1.80 |
|
US Tax-Exempt Bonds |
2.64 |
6.15 |
3.52 |
|
US High Yield Bonds |
6.58 |
9.61 |
9.48 |
|
Non-US Dev Bonds |
3.44 |
9.40 |
2.73 |
|
Non-US Emrg Bonds |
6.00 |
10.78 |
7.24 |
|
Cash |
1.94 |
1.89 |
2.04 |
|
Real Estate |
7.60 |
23.12 |
4.20 |
|
Commodities |
4.47 |
27.25 |
2.04 |
|
Inflation |
2.25 |
1.72 |
0.00 |